“USDINR CMP- 83.35 (spot) Indian Rupee appreciated on Thursday on weak US Dollar and sharp rise in domestic markets. FII inflows also supported Rupee. India’s WPI rose 0.2% y-o-y in November 2023 vs -0.52% in the previous month and forecast of 0.08%. US Dollar declined by nearly a percent dovish FOMC meeting. Fed kept rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% range for the third consecutive meeting. However, it hinted at rate cuts by 75 bps in 2024, leading to expectations of 3 rate cuts. However, he also cautioned that the central bank has kept its option to act again if needed open, as the economy has surprised forecasters. This led to sharp gains in global risk assets.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on rise in risk appetite in global markets and a weak US Dollar. FII inflows may also support Rupee. However, positive crude oil prices buying of Dollars by RBI to shore up its forex reserves may cap sharp upside. Traders may take cues retail sales and weekly unemployment claims data. From US. Investors may also watch out for Bank of England and ECB monetary policy. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.00 to Rs 83.70.”

– Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“The market is eyeing a new high in light of favourable macros. We saw a good recovery last month in Indian equities due to a change in the macroeconomic narrative in favour of the overall equity market. Thanks to the dovish narrative from the US FED in the FOMC meeting, today, the Nifty 50 scaled to an all-time high level and crossed the 21,100 mark for the first time. Several factors contributed to this rally. There was a nearly 100 basis point decrease in US 10-year bond yields from their recent peak. The status quo maintained by the RBI, with a positive revision in FY24 GDP from 6.5% to 7 %, sequential improvement in the high-frequency indicators, and robust earnings growth expectations, contributed to this momentum. The election results in three out of four key states have raised the expectations of policy continuity in 2024, boosting market confidence. We can see a further new high in the market if the bond yields and the crude prices remain at the same levels for the entire month. Large caps seem better placed at current levels in terms of overall valuations. Based on a favourable macroeconomic picture compared to other emerging markets, flows may shift towards large caps, especially large-cap banks, in the near term,” said Pranav Haridasan, MD and CEO at Axis Securities.

“The Indian equity market has witnessed a remarkable upward trajectory, achieving fresh all-time highs as both the Nifty 50 and Sensex 30 indices surpassed significant milestones, breaching the 21,000 and 70,000 marks, respectively. A confluence of factors has underpinned these robust gains, with a key catalyst being the dovish stance adopted by the US Federal Reserve, opting to maintain interest rates within the range of 5.25%-5.50% and signaling a plan to implement three rate cuts in 2024. Furthermore, the resurgence of FIIs as net buyers in November, the growing anticipation of the return of the ruling BJP in the upcoming general election, and better-than-expected domestic economic outcomes provided an additional impetus to the bullish trend in benchmark indices. Nifty prices are likely to find resistance near 21,500, while support may align near 20,900. In Bank Nifty, resistance may come at 48,500, and support lies near 47,300,” said Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, Master Capital Services.

Market cap of BSE-listed firms jumps to record high of ₹354.41 lakh crore; investors richer by ₹3 lakh crore on Wednesday.

“For the third time in a row, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 5.25%– 5.50%. The FOMC reports that there is slowing of the expansion of economic activity. The unemployment rate continues to be low. The rate of inflation has softened as compared to the beginning of the year. The US banking system is stable and strong. The Committee continues to pay close attention to inflationary threats. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 5.4%, effective December 14, 2023. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 5.5%,” said Sanjeev Agrawal, President of PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

LTI Mindtree, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, HCL Technology, Bajaj Finserv are the top gainers on NSE Nifty 50 index.

The stock price of Chalet Hotels surged 2.84% to to hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 660.90 following the news that the India Ratings & Research has upgraded the Company’s Credit Rating from IND BBB+ to IND A- on a positive outlook.

“A confluence of domestic and global factors is driving a Goldilocks scenario in the Indian equity market. Unwavering political stability, a robust macroeconomic backdrop with healthy GDP growth and subdued inflation, and weakening dollar and US bond yields amid expectations of a 2024 rate cut have fueled bullish momentum. Moreover, a recent slump in crude oil prices has eased inflation pressure, further boosting investor confidence. Adding fuel to the fire, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are exhibiting signs of FOMO, eager not to miss out on this potential multi-year bull run. With such a compelling confluence of factors, investors are advised to stay invested. The Indian market looks poised for further gains, with Nifty’s immediate upside target sitting at 21,315. This rally has the potential to extend towards the 22,000 mark, though downside support lies at 20,770. Bank Nifty also exhibits bullish momentum, facing immediate resistance at 48,000. Above this, a swift climb towards the 50,000 mark could be in store. The 47000–46800 area will be a strong support zone,” said Parth Nyati, Founder of Tradingo.

The Nifty 50 soared 1.25% to hit a record high of 21,189.55, while the BSE Sensex jumped 955.4 points to hit a fresh high of 70,540 during the intra-day on Thursday.

“We believe India Shelter IPO offer gives investors an opportunity to invest in fastest growing affordable housing finance sector, with a targeted focus on financing residential properties for first-time home loan takers. We think their impressive AUM growth of 40.8% between FY2021 and FY2023 reflects their agility and market responsiveness and their significant presence in key states, comprising 47% of the affordable housing finance market, reflects a robust regional foothold. We believe India Shelter is in right space to tap GOI focus under “Aavas for all” program and target segment on first time home loan takers in the low and middle income group in Tier II and Tier III cities in India, which is growing high when compared to Tier 1 cities. By looking at the financials the company has shown a strong growth between fiscal 2022 and 2023 with a 41.45%/30.48% in revenue from operations and 48%/21% in net profit. On Valuation par se at upper price band of Rs.493/-, the issue is asking for a Market Cap of Rs. 5278 crore. Based on annualized FY24 earnings and fully diluted post-IPO paid-up capital, the company is asking a P/B of 2.3x which seems the valuations are reasonable when compared to its industry peers which are trading above 4x on average. Given the company has created a niche place in affordable housing finance in the middle and lower middle class with 97.7% of their loan applicants are women which makes them apart from other housing finance companies. Hence, considering all the parameters, we are recommending investors to “Subscribe” for the long term,” said Rajan Shinde, Research Analyst, Mehta Equities Ltd

Mphasis, Coforge, L&T Technology Services, Persistent Systems, and LTI Mindtree are the top buzzing stocks in IT basket.

“Look for slippage past 83.29 to play downsides aiming 83.19 and 83.02 initially. Alternatively, if slippages pause at 83.19, look for a resumption of upswings that were stalled yesterday and get back to the 83.35-83.4 region,” said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

“Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 21000 for Calls and 20500 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 21000 for Calls and 19000 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 20900 for Calls and 20500 for Puts in weekly and at 21000 for Calls and 20500 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs decreased their future index long position holdings by 6.28%, increased future index shorts by 1.81% and in index options by 13.86% decrease in Call longs, 8.63% decrease in Call short, 28.73% decrease in Put longs and 22.32% decrease in Put shorts,” said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

SAIL, MphasiS, Coforge, Manappuram Finance, and Info Edge are the top stocks trading at their 52-week high.

The share price of Reliance Industries has surged by 1.38% to Rs 2,467.20 following the news that Moody’s has affirmed Reliance’s rating at Baa2 with a stable outlook.

“Reclaiming of 20800-850 region not only negates the efforts of bears yesterday, but also allows resumption of upside trajectory aiming 21030-21220, or 21600 in an optimistic scenario. Alternatively inability to float above the 20890 region would weaken the bullish construct again, but a collapse is less favoured today,” said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

Commenting on the Technical outlook of  Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative analyst at LKP Securities, said, “After a brief dip, the bulls demonstrated strength by defending the crucial support level of 20800. The index witnessed a sharp recovery from the day’s low to the high point. The overall market sentiment remains bullish, and considering the current levels, traders are advised to initiate fresh long positions. A stop-loss can be set at 20800, targeting potential upside levels of 21400/21500 in the near term.”

HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, LTI Mindtree, Infosys and Wipro are the top gainers on Nifty 50 index.

“Despite initial concerns, the Bank Nifty index displayed strength by not breaching the crucial support of 46800 and instead witnessed a sharp rebound from lower levels. To sustain and further advance the upward momentum, the index needs to maintain levels above 47200. A decisive close above 47500, where call writers are active, could pave the way for additional gains, targeting levels of 48000/48500 in the upcoming,” said Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative analyst at LKP Securities.

The NSE Nifty 50 gains 0.88% to settle at 21,110.40, while the BSE Sensex jumped 0.81% to 70,146.10.

The NSE has added India Cements, Balrampur Chini Mills, Delta Corp, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Hindustan Copper, National Aluminium Company Ltd, SAIL, and ZEEL to its F&O ban list.

Foreign institutional investors (FII) buyed shares worth net Rs 4710.86 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) offloaded shares worth net Rs 958.49 crore on December 13, 2023, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.

WTI crude prices are trading at $69.92 up 0.65%, while Brent crude prices are trading at $74.62 up 0.48%, on Thursday morning.

Shares in the Asia-Pacific region are trading in the negative territorry on Thursday morning. The Asia Dow is trading up 0.47%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is red, down 0.59%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is trading down 0.89% and the benchmark Chinese index Shanghai Composite is trading down by 1.15%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies, traded down 0.09% at 102.78.

US stocks closed at fresh highs of the year on Wednesday, after Fed signals three rate cuts in 2024. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 168.17 points or 1.16% to 14,701.57 and the S&P 500 added 55.99 points or 1.21% to 4,699.69. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 447.43 points or 1.22% to 37,025.37.